Prediction of Chance to Failure

[AromaticsThailand]

After we know Prob. of Failure F(t) or Chance to Failure or Unreliability. The meaning of this tell us what I should to do to prevent the failure, right? or other meaning?

For instance: Prob. of Failure 63.2% at 2000 hours, equipment will breakdown 2000 running hours, engineer will do something to prevent it before 2000 hours, right?

[Pantelis]

Well the probability of failure tells you just that … the “probability” that it will fail! Based on the example you gave, “Prob. of Failure 63.2% at 2000 hours” then this means that by 2000 hrs there is a 63.2% probability that the equipment will break down. Another way to look at it is by saying that if I had 100 units 63 would fail by 2000 hrs.

Now what you, or the engineer, choose to do with respect to dealing with this is up to you. In other words it depends on the outcome of the failure and its consequences. If you are talking about a critical aircraft component a probability of failure of 1% may be unacceptable, whereas if you are looking at something less critical and inconsequential a high probability of failure may be acceptable without any action. At the end, and from a maintenance perspective (because I think this where you are coming from) the choice to replace a component before it reaches a certain probability of failure is an economic and/or risk analysis exercise. A simple example of economic analysis can be found at http://www.reliasoft.com/newsletter/2Q2000/preventive.htm (http://www.reliasoft.com/newsletter/2Q2000/preventive.htm)

Hope this helps

[AromaticsThailand]

That make me clearly in your opinion....Thank a lot. I must to learn more and more.