Mike
May 11th, 2004, 12:31 PM
need an excel spreadsheet that would chart the Available Capacity (MW) versus Cumulative Probability.
The formula is easy to describe; tough to compute. With 9 units, there are combinations of units on, off, and partial load. One combination is that all 9 units are running. Then you calculate the probability of that event by taking the probability that each unit is on, using the observed availability. Then repeat the process for all combinations.
I would like to be able to plot various defined cases by varying the units’ Availability.
Case 1 : The refinery has 9 generating units each with the following capacities and availabilities:
Unit Capacity Availability
TG-1 11.0 MW 75%
TG-2 10.0 76%
TG-3 13.0 85%
TG-4 12.5 34%
TG-7 10.0 71%
TG-8 4.0 0%
TG-9 10.0 78%
TG-10 10.0 79%
Frame 5 13.5 85%
The formula is easy to describe; tough to compute. With 9 units, there are combinations of units on, off, and partial load. One combination is that all 9 units are running. Then you calculate the probability of that event by taking the probability that each unit is on, using the observed availability. Then repeat the process for all combinations.
I would like to be able to plot various defined cases by varying the units’ Availability.
Case 1 : The refinery has 9 generating units each with the following capacities and availabilities:
Unit Capacity Availability
TG-1 11.0 MW 75%
TG-2 10.0 76%
TG-3 13.0 85%
TG-4 12.5 34%
TG-7 10.0 71%
TG-8 4.0 0%
TG-9 10.0 78%
TG-10 10.0 79%
Frame 5 13.5 85%